AL Central

The second installment of my utterly un-researched predictions for the 2007 baseball season.

AL CENTRAL

The teams:
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins

The outlook: The AL Central is the best division in baseball -- period -- and this year's competition is going to be intense.

The please-don't-bunt-it-to-the-pitcher Tigers return basically the same lineup as the team that got them to the World Series last year, with the notable addition of Gary Sheffield. The loss of Sheffield is huge for the Yankees, as they will now have to find a different outfielder for Old-Timers' Day. Postseason innings can take quite the toll on a pitching staff (see Kenny Rogers), and it is a valid question as to whether the Tiger pitching staff will be able to hold up over another 162 game season and carry the tabbies deep into October. The Tigers will have a better first than second half -- look for them to get a slight lead, but fade down the stretch (your 2006 AL Central Champion Minnesota Twins anyone?).

The White Sox should be Detroit's main competition, and they could be a very capable or superior opponent. The 2007 White Sox team has a lot of ifs -- if Mark Buehrle can return to form, if Javier Vazquez can live up to his potential, if Scott Podsednik v.2005 not v.2006 shows up, and if John Danks can be a capable fifth starter. If all those ifs fall into place this White Sox team will be a handful. (Too many ifs? Remember 2005? If Orlando Hernandez can still pitch -- if Jon Garland can live up to his potential -- if this Tadahito Iguchi guy can play second base -- if Shingo Takatsu can remain a dominant closer without prototypical stuff -- and later, if this tall, wide guy named Jenks can take over the closer's duties).

Look for the White Sox and Tigers to slug it out all year, being pushed by the Cleveland Indians, and, to a lesser extent due to the loss of Liriano (injury) and Radke (retirement), Minnesota.

Spaulding prognostication:
AL Central champion -- Detroit Tigers
AL Central Wild Card -- Chicago White Sox

Tigers limp to a divisional crown, but don't get to live October to its fullest.

Up next: AL West

Strike Back at the Gold Glove Awards

Baseball fans now have an opportunity to make up (a little bit) for Joe Crede's slight in the Gold Glove balloting by casting their vote for the third baseman in the This Year in Baseball Awards "defense" category. Not on the defensive ballot? Eric Chavez and Kenny "Dirty Hand" Rogers.

Interestingly the This Year in Baseball Awards "postseason moment of the year" category does not include the Detroit Tigers' five pitching errors. Clearly these awards are far from perfect too.

More Gold Glove Griping

Apparently a "dirty" hand doesn't help you in the infield...

The Chicago Tribune:

For what it's worth, during the regular season Detroit was an average fielding team, allowing the seventh-fewest unearned runs in the American League. The pitching staff combined to commit 15 errors during the season, only 10 more than they did during the World Series. Oddly, Kenny Rogers, who on Thursday was awarded his fifth Gold Glove, had five errors during the regular season, tied with Florida's Dontrelle Willis and Cleveland's Paul Byrd for the most among big-league pitchers.

Huh? How on Earth did this guy get a Gold Glove? What does Kenny Rogers have on Major League Baseball that he can rank at the top in terms of number of errors committed and still get a Gold Glove, and when he has "dirty" hands, he simply gets asked to wash up?

Gold Glove

The Gold Glove awards for the American League came out today.

The Detroit Tigers' Kenny Rogers won a Gold Glove. Pretty sure he also won the Brown Thumb award too.

By the way, Joe Crede should file a police complaint because he got robbed -- Eric Chavez?!? C'mon! Crede deserved the Gold Glove in 2005 and he should have gotten it this year too.

RosenBlog

From Steve Rosenbloom's excellent new blog:

Tigers pitchers made five errors in five games, a World Series record, and I’m thinking, jeez, all Dusty Baker has to do is show up in a stadium and bad fundamentals break out.

Gut Check #2

Having pretty much failed Gut Check #1 by winning only one game of their three game series with Detroit after taking the opener, the White Sox now return home to face two decent teams (the Texas Rangers and the Minnesota Twins). Playing the next six games against the backdrop of a sold out U.S. Cellular Field, the White Sox have a lot of work to do.

On the plus side, the Detroit Tigers FINALLY play somebody with some level of talent in the Oakland A's and the disappointing-to-date, Cleveland Indians. (Detroit's schedule doesn't show it, but I'm pretty sure they get to play a Kansas City or a Tampa Bay at least twice a week).

Now 5.5 games behind the Tigers in the AL Central and a slim 2.5 games up on the Yankees for the Wild Card, the White Sox need to stop their downward spiral in what so has been an absolutely dismal second half that has delivered one win over the past six games (and only two in the last nine if you track it back before the All-Star break).

To correct course tonight the Sox send Mark Buehrle to the bump who could use his own course corrected.

The usually steady Buehrle has delivered a string of completely non-Buehrle-esque games in his last few starts that have done nothing but help fuel questions about whether this White Sox rotation is still gassed from last year's playoff run.

Tonight's press notes report that "Mark Buehrle is 0-3 with a 13.81 ERA (22 ER/14.1 IP) in his last three starts." Yikes! Typically stats that bad are put up by guys on the team NotGoodNotGoodAtAll covers.

One cannot help but hope that the Sox will remember that they are a good team after they get a good ol' dose of home cooking -- and based on their record so far this year, home cooking is exactly what they need. More from tonight's game notes:

Home Field Advantage -- At 33-14, the White Sox own the third-best home record in baseball and are on pace to finish with 57 wins at U.S. Cellular Field, matching the franchise record set in 1912 ... the Sox have won 32 of their last 43 home games, outscoring the opposition, 263-176.

Time to get it going 56.

No luck, just wins. Go Sox!

Can't Put the Pieces Together

How come Javier Vazquez can't put a good outing together? He seems to be able to put together a few good innings, but ultimately can't seem to find his way through a solid seven or eight innings that you need from championship caliber starting pitching.

This guy isn't getting killed by a thousand cuts, he's getting decapitated by one big guillotine of an inning.

Scott Merkin, MLB.com:

"As has been the case in most of Vazquez's starts over the past month, the Tigers got to the right-hander in their third time through the order Wednesday night and rallied for a 5-2 victory before a sellout crowd of 39,593 at Comerica Park. Vazquez, who was cruising along entering the sixth inning, allowed all five Detroit runs in the frame."

"...Vazquez has limited the opposition to a .228 average and has a 2.18 earned run average when facing hitters for the first time in a game. Those numbers barely jump the second time through, with a .229 average and 2.54 ERA. On the third head-to-head battle on a given night, Vazquez has a 10.09 ERA and opposing hitters have a .347 average."

OK, Javier, so I guess you get to pitch five innings or so and then we get B-Mac.

Sox-Tigers Game Notes

Some highlights from the White Sox's pregame notes for Tuesday. (Be sure to add in one more win -- YES! -- to be factually accurate, as these notes were written before the 7-1 win).

White Sox vs. Detroit — The White Sox lead the season series, 5-1 ... the Sox, who have won seven of the last eight games against the Tigers and 17 of the last 22, swept a three-game set at Comerica Park on 4/10-13, their fourth at Comerica Park ... three of the five wins have been by one run and a fourth by two runs ... the Sox are batting .259 (52-201) with a 4.33 ERA (26 ER/54.0 IP) and have outscored the Tigers, 32-26 ... Chicago won the 2005 season series, 14-5, going 7-2 at Comerica Park and 7-3 at U.S. Cellular Field ... the Sox trail in the all-time series, 949-971, but are 132-77 since 1992 ... since division play began in 1969, the Sox are 242-234, going 123-117 at home (68-44 at U.S. Cellular Field) and 119-117 in Detroit (35-21 at Comerica Park).

Central Command — The White Sox are 21-13 vs. the American League Central, going 5-1 vs. Detroit, 5-2 vs. Minnesota, 6-3 vs. Kansas City and 5-7 vs. Cleveland ... the Sox were 52-22 (.703) within the division last season, setting a club record for winning percentage against any division.

One Down, Two to Go

The White Sox passed part one of their gut check tonight with a solid 7-1 victory over the Detroit Tigers.

From MLB.com's game wrap:

Tuesday's complete White Sox performance also reinforced one point that has been abundantly clear for most of the past two seasons. The American League Central title still goes through Chicago, although neither team appears ready to yield the division crown after one lopsided victory.

Neither side will admit that the White Sox (58-34) have moved inside the heads of the Tigers (62-31), despite a 6-1 record against Detroit in 2006, a 4-0 ledger at Comerica Park and a 12-2 mark over the last 14 played in Detroit.

"I don't think it's a psychological edge," Detroit manager Jim Leyland said. "I think they've pitched better than we have and hit better than we have. Six times."

What the Sox got tonight, and what they'll need for the rest of the season was solid pitching. Garland continues to show signs that he just had a rough start and that last year wasn't an aberration. Now it is up to the rest of the rotation to shake off any rough outings and pick up the pace.

More from Scott Merkin, MLB.com:

Garland (9-3) won his fifth straight decision. He has not lost since June 8 at home against the Tigers. With 12 earned runs allowed in his last 38 1/3 innings -- a 2.82 earned run average over his last six starts -- Garland currently stands as the most consistent starter on the White Sox staff. The right-hander did nothing to hurt that status Tuesday, allowing one earned run on six hits over seven innings, striking out five and walking one.

Vazquez takes the ball tomorrow.

MLB.com: Entering his 18th start of the season Wednesday night, Javier Vazquez (9-4, 5.07) sits two wins short of 100 for his career and three losses short of 100. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 7.33 ERA in his last four starts and 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA lifetime against Detroit.

Gut Check Time for the White Sox

Well, here we go.

Past the halfway point in the baseball season, the White Sox have come upon what I think is their first real, make-or-break, gut check.

Fresh off of a lame series in New York where they dropped three in a row after the All-Star break, the White Sox now square up in a three game set against the don't-call-us-Tiggers-anymore Detroit Tigers starting Tuesday night.

The Sox are 4.5 games behind Detroit, and have lost six of their last 10.

Yes, there will be ups and downs in any season. But things need to start moving up -- and in a hurry.

The Detroit Tigers come into the series having won six of their last 10. They bring with them the best record in baseball and the best team ERA in the league at 3.54.

Simply put, the White Sox have to perform -- now. You cannot afford to keep falling further and further back behind the Tigers and hope they implode (as some continue to argue they will).

The White Sox also shouldn't count on the Wild Card playoff spot either. After a Bronx beating the Sox have watched their Wild Card lead over the Bombers drop from 5.5 games to 2.5 games. And with a stacked, financed and competitive AL East you can't assume the Wild Card gap will simply expand in good time.

It is up against this background that the Sox will try to take care of their own business (and in turn take care of the Tigers' too), and they'll be doing 2/3 of it with the back end of their rotation. White Sox.com's pitching probables lays out the following matchups:

Tuesday, July 18
Comerica Park | 6:05 PM CT
CWS Jon Garland, RHP (8-3, 5.37) @ DET Nate Robertson, LHP (8-5, 3.36)

Wednesday, July 19
Comerica Park | 6:05 PM CT
CWS Javier Vazquez, RHP (9-4, 5.07) @ DET Jeremy Bonderman, RHP (9-4, 3.59)

Thursday, July 20
Comerica Park | 12:05 PM CT
CWS Jose Contreras, RHP (9-1, 3.48) @ DET Kenny Rogers, LHP (11-3, 4.10)

Buzz around Garland is that he is getting it turned around, Vazquez has pitched well enough to earn him trade rumors, and Contreras is legit.

I'm not pushing the panic button, but I am saying that this series has the markings of something to be included in a Michael Clarke Duncan highlight voiceover, or determine if the 2006 White Sox team will be remembered as simply the team that was good as paper, but lacking the 2005 magic. Let's hope it is the first one.

As Ozzie says, "No luck, just runs."

The Little League

I don't care what the final score of this year's Major League Baseball All-Star Game ends up at (and it is 2-1 NL in the 8th as I write this), the National League is far, far inferior to the American League. Need proof? How about this from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

"...over the past nine seasons, the AL has gone 8-0-1 [in the All-Star game]. As it turned out, the highlight for the NL was the 7-7 tie in 2002 in Milwaukee, the game that prompted the format change with the World Series tie-in.

"Beyond that dominance, the AL has swept the past two World Series and ran through the NL in interleague play like General Sherman through the South, going 154-98. "

154-98! That's a .611 winning percentage. And yes, the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Devil Rays are included in that total.

For point of comparison, there are only three teams at the All-Star break whose winning percentage is better than .600. They are:

Tigers
.670

White Sox
.648

Red Sox
.616

And what do all three of these teams have in common? Yep, they're all from the American League.